Steel market price forecast on March 29

Rebar: On March 29, the average price of 20mm three-level seismic rebar in 31 major cities across the country was 4907 yuan/ton, an increase of 95 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. Judging from the market situation, the sharp rise in futures and billet boosted market confidence. At the same time, as most steel mills pushed up, spot traders were more actively following the rise. At present, the demand for steel in the downstream peak season continues to be released, and short-term attention needs to be paid to the continuity of demand under high-priced resources. It is expected that domestic construction steel prices may continue to strengthen on the 30th.

Hot-rolled coils: On March 29, the average price of 4.75mm hot-rolled coils in 24 major cities across the country was 5279 yuan/ton, an increase of 157 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. On the 29th, confidence in the spot market was significantly boosted. Merchants' quotations rose sharply. Low-level transactions were acceptable, but high-level transactions were somewhat weak. In the afternoon, as futures continued to rise, prices in some cities rose again, and transactions at high levels were generally average. The current market demand is relatively resilient, but as prices continue to rise, there is a certain test of the downstream endurance. In the short-term, market prices are still on the upward trend under the support of the rapid rise in futures and low inventory pressure, but we still need to pay attention to the performance of the demand side in the later period. On the whole, it is expected that the price of hot-rolled coil on the 30th may fluctuate strongly.

Cold rolled coil: On March 29, the average price of 1.0mm cold coil in 24 major cities across the country was 5,796 yuan/ton, an increase of 77 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. According to market feedback, on 29th, cargo continued to strengthen and steel mills’ settlements were relatively high recently. Merchants in many places mainly sold more. The north-south spread continued to narrow. According to the steel mills, the overall export orders have been relatively good recently. The scarcity of resources and the preference for market transactions have provided strong support for the price increase of cold rolled products. On the whole, it is expected that on the 30th, the national cold rolled prices will fluctuate and rise.

Plate: On March 29, the average price of 20mm general-purpose plates in 24 major cities across the country was 5257 yuan/ton, an increase of 136 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. Tangshan limited production continued to ferment, and billet prices rose sharply. From the perspective of supply, under the limited production environment in Tangshan, the production of medium and heavy plates this week will have a slight downward trend, but steel mills in other regions are still enthusiastic about production, and output remains at a high level. From the perspective of circulation, the decline in the social inventory of the medium board is expected to continue to expand. In particular, the general board resources are affected by the steel mill's order ratio, and there may be a shortage of goods later. In addition, the low-cost resources that were negotiated a year ago have basically arrived in the near future, and the resources in transit from North China to East China will be reduced. In terms of demand, from the perspective of the speed of inventory reduction, the resilience of downstream demand is still sufficient, but every new high spot price will pose a great challenge to the downstream, especially for companies that have received long-term orders. On the whole, prices are expected to run at a high level on the 30th.